PREVIEW

This footage shows the asteroid that could cause havoc by striking the Earth in 2032.

Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032 - but one that has increased slightly since it was first spotted.

The impact probability for this asteroid will continue to be reassessed as astronomers continue to track it - its probability of striking Earth rose to 3.2% this week. A 1 in 32 chance.

By April 2025, the object will be so far away that it will become too faint to be detected by Earth-based telescopes, meaning we won’t be able to track its progress and thus its possibility of hitting Earth until 2028.

The latest impact probability is available on the automated Sentry page at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

If the asteroid entered the atmosphere over a populated region, an airburst of an object on the smaller side of the size range, about 130 - 200 feet (40 - 60 meters) could shatter windows or cause minor structural damage across a city. An asteroid about 300 feet (90 meters) in size, which is much less likely, could cause more severe damage, potentially collapsing residential structures across a city and shattering windows across larger regions.

If the asteroid does head for Earth and is of a size that could cause devastation, a kinetic impactor spacecraft like NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission - which collided with the asteroid Dimorphos in 2022 - is one asteroid deflection technique that could be used to address a potentially hazardous asteroid in the future.

Each asteroid is unique, and deflection would depend on the asteroid’s size, physical properties, orbit, and discovery warning time. For 2024 YR4, NASAare still in the information gathering stage.

The likelihood of an Earth impact is still very low and will likely decrease.